Goldman Sachs Raises Year-End 2025 Gold Price Forecast to $3,700 per Ounce

Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $3,300, with a projected trading range of $3,650 to $3,950. The revision is attributed to stronger-than-expected demand from central banks and increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) driven by heightened recession risks.

In a note dated Friday, the bank stated:

“If a recession occurs, ETF inflows could accelerate further and lift gold prices to $3,880 per troy ounce by year-end.”

However, the bank also noted:

“If economic growth surprises to the upside due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely revert to our rates-based predictions, with year-end prices closer to $3,550 per ounce.”

Spot gold prices reached a new record high on Monday, hitting $3,245.42 per ounce, though the market lacked clear direction as investors continued to assess the ongoing U.S. tariff developments.

The White House announced temporary exemptions from the proposed reciprocal tariffs for products such as smartphones and computers, most of which are imported from China. Despite the exemptions, President Donald Trump warned that tariffs are still likely to be implemented in the future.

Goldman Sachs also revised its monthly central bank gold demand estimate, raising it from 70 metric tons to 80 metric tons, reflecting a more bullish outlook on official sector purchases.